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Água Santa U20 vs Juventus U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventus U20
Juventus U20
F. Mandarino 52'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Água Santa U2042%
×Draw27%
Juventus U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Água Santa U20
1.35
Juventus U20
1.12

Água Santa U20 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Água Santa U20
1.53
Juventus U20
1.18

allows per match

Água Santa U20
1.06
Juventus U20
1.18

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par
Juventus U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Juventus U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw
69%
Água Santa U20 or Juventus U20
73%
Draw or Juventus U20
58%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
19%
Juventus U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals
74%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
39%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
15%
Juventus U20 1+ goals
67%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
31%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Juventus U20 away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Juventus U20 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more
42%
level
27%
Juventus U20 scores more
31%

Água Santa U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
F. Mandarino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Água Santa U20 1–0 Juventus U20

Água Santa U20 beat Juventus U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: F. Mandarino (52').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gíglio Portugal Pichinin in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo.