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Juventus Managua vs Deportivo Las Sabanas — Primera Division 2019

Juventus Managua
Juventus Managua
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Las Sabanas
Deportivo Las Sabanas
11/27/2019Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 18Complejo Deportivo De Fútbol Arnoldo y Matty Chávez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Managua56%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Las Sabanas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Managua
1.79
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.01

Juventus Managua creates 77% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 19 away

creates per match

Juventus Managua
1.64
Deportivo Las Sabanas
0.58

allows per match

Juventus Managua
1.45
Deportivo Las Sabanas
1.95

finishing

Juventus Managua+0.00on par
Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Managua ↓

Deportivo Las Sabanas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Juventus Managua or draw
79%
Juventus Managua or Deportivo Las Sabanas
77%
Draw or Deportivo Las Sabanas
44%

Winning margin

Juventus Managua wins by 2+
31%
Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventus Managua 1+ goals
83%
Juventus Managua 2+ goals
53%
Juventus Managua 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Managua at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Managua attack 1.64 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.58 + Juventus Managua defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Juventus Managua scores more
56%
level
23%
Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more
21%

Juventus Managua at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Juventus Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: Juventus Managua 0–1 Deportivo Las Sabanas

Deportivo Las Sabanas beat Juventus Managua 1-0 in Primera Division on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo De Fútbol Arnoldo y Matty Chávez in Masaya.