Deportivo Las Sabanas 0–0 Juventus Managua

Deportivo Las Sabanas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juventus Managua

9/29/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 9Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas47%

×Draw28%

Juventus Managua25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Las SabanasExpected goals in this matchJuventus Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.87

Deportivo Las Sabanas

1.31

Juventus Managua

0.87

Deportivo Las Sabanas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 78 away

0.94

creates per match

0.85

0.89

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.94

Juventus Managua

0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.89

Juventus Managua

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Juventus Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Las Sabanas ↓

Juventus Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Las Sabanas or draw

75%

Deportivo Las Sabanas or Juventus Managua

72%

Draw or Juventus Managua

53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+

22%

Juventus Managua wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals

14%

Juventus Managua 1+ goals

58%

Juventus Managua 2+ goals

22%

Juventus Managua 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)

65%

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Las Sabanas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Juventus Managua away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.94 + Juventus Managua defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.31

Juventus Managua attack 0.85 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more

47%

level

28%

Juventus Managua scores more

25%

Deportivo Las Sabanas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Las Sabanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff