Juventus Managua 5–1 Chinandega: Result & Stats

Juventus Managua

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Chinandega

C. Guardado 56', 25'

C. Rodríguez 54', 8'

J. Arteaga 30'

R. Rodriguez 27'

11/8/2020

Primera Division · Apertura - 16Complejo Deportivo De Fútbol Arnoldo y Matty Chávez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Juventus Managua55%

×Draw23%

Chinandega22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus ManaguaExpected goals in this matchChinandega

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.10

Juventus Managua

1.85

Chinandega

1.10

Juventus Managua creates 68% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 35 away

1.70

creates per match

0.74

1.47

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Juventus Managua

1.70

Chinandega

0.74

allows per match

Juventus Managua

1.47

Chinandega

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Managua+0.00on par

Chinandega+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Managua ↓

Chinandega →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Juventus Managua or draw

78%

Juventus Managua or Chinandega

77%

Draw or Chinandega

45%

Winning margin

Juventus Managua wins by 2+

31%

Chinandega wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Juventus Managua 1+ goals

84%

Juventus Managua 2+ goals

55%

Juventus Managua 3+ goals

28%

Chinandega 1+ goals

67%

Chinandega 2+ goals

30%

Chinandega 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)

71%

Chinandega (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Managua at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.47 · 70 matches

Chinandega away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Managua attack 1.70 + Chinandega defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Chinandega attack 0.74 + Juventus Managua defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Juventus Managua scores more

55%

level

23%

Chinandega scores more

22%

Juventus Managua at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Juventus Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

25'

27'

30'

35'

46'

A. Alvarado← K. Venerio

54'

C. Rodríguez

56'

C. Guardado

61'

E. Pastrán← C. Guardado

65'

E. García← C. Rodríguez

72'

P. Luna← M. Solórzano

Juventus

Chinandega

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Rodríguez

Bonilla

⚽2

▼

Guardado

Bolaños

▼

Solórzano

Manager: O. Blanco

61'▲E. Pastrán←▼C. Guardado

65'▲E. García←▼C. Rodríguez

72'▲P. Luna←▼M. Solórzano

Juventus Managua substitutes

PastránGarcíaLunaRíosEspañaRamirezLeyton

Manager: R. Espinoza

35'▲E. Morán←▼E. Alcázar

46'▲A. Alvarado←▼K. Venerio

Chinandega substitutes

MoránAlvaradoBarriosValverdeMolinaAmadorZeledón

Primera Division: Juventus Managua 5–1 Chinandega

Juventus Managua beat Chinandega 5-1 in Primera Division on November 8, 2020.

Goals: C. Rodríguez (8', 54'), C. Guardado (25', 56'), R. Rodriguez (27'), J. Arteaga (30').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo De Fútbol Arnoldo y Matty Chávez in Masaya.

Juventus Managua vs Chinandega — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Juventus Managua 5–1 Chinandega