Chinandega 4–0 Juventus Managua: Result & Stats

Chinandega

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Juventus Managua

M. Barrios 84'

E. Alcázar 69', 14'

A. Zúñiga 34'

4/1/2020

Primera Division · Clausura - 13Estadio La Veranera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chinandega44%

×Draw25%

Juventus Managua31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChinandegaExpected goals in this matchJuventus Managua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Chinandega

1.52

Juventus Managua

1.25

Chinandega creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 74 away

1.35

creates per match

0.86

1.65

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Chinandega

1.35

Juventus Managua

0.86

allows per match

Chinandega

1.65

Juventus Managua

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chinandega+0.00on par

Juventus Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chinandega ↓

Juventus Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Chinandega or draw

69%

Chinandega or Juventus Managua

75%

Draw or Juventus Managua

56%

Winning margin

Chinandega wins by 2+

22%

Juventus Managua wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chinandega 1+ goals

78%

Chinandega 2+ goals

45%

Chinandega 3+ goals

20%

Juventus Managua 1+ goals

71%

Juventus Managua 2+ goals

36%

Juventus Managua 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chinandega (draw refunded)

58%

Juventus Managua (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chinandega at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

Juventus Managua away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chinandega attack 1.35 + Juventus Managua defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Juventus Managua attack 0.86 + Chinandega defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chinandega scores more

44%

level

25%

Juventus Managua scores more

31%

Chinandega at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chinandega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

E. Alcázar

34'

A. Zúñiga

37'

A. Mercado← D. Berger

47'

E. Pavón← B. García

55'

J. Torres← E. Alcázar

59'

J. Davis← C. Guardado

67'

J. Molina← A. Melendez

69'

E. Alcázar

78'

E. Morán← J. Loaisiga

84'

M. Barrios

Chinandega

Juventus

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽2

▼

Alcázar

Gutiérrez

Manager: R. Espinoza

55'▲J. Torres←▼E. Alcázar

67'▲J. Molina←▼A. Melendez

78'▲E. Morán←▼J. Loaisiga

Chinandega substitutes

TorresMolinaMoránGómezChavarríaVenerioBonilla

Manager: H. Medina

37'▲A. Mercado←▼D. Berger

47'▲E. Pavón←▼B. García

59'▲J. Davis←▼C. Guardado

Juventus Managua substitutes

MercadoPavónDavisMoren0BrenesLorenteCruz

Primera Division: Chinandega 4–0 Juventus Managua

Chinandega beat Juventus Managua 4-0 in Primera Division on April 1, 2020.

Goals: E. Alcázar (14', 69'), A. Zúñiga (34'), M. Barrios (84').

The match was played at Estadio La Veranera in La Veranera.

Chinandega vs Juventus Managua — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Chinandega 4–0 Juventus Managua