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Juventus Malchika vs Dunav Lom — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
9/30/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 8Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Juventus Malchika25%
×Draw23%
Dunav Lom52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
1.24
Dunav Lom
1.86

Dunav Lom creates 50% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 7 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Dunav Lom
1.71

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Dunav Lom
1.00

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Dunav Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Dunav Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
48%
Juventus Malchika or Dunav Lom
77%
Draw or Dunav Lom
75%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
10%
Dunav Lom wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
71%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
35%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
13%
Dunav Lom 1+ goals
84%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
55%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
33%
Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Dunav Lom away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Dunav Lom defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Dunav Lom attack 1.71 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
25%
level
23%
Dunav Lom scores more
52%

Dunav Lom at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus Malchika vs Dunav Lom

Dunav Lom beat Juventus Malchika 2-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.