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Dunav Lom vs Juventus Malchika — Third League - Northwest 2018

Dunav Lom
Dunav Lom
CANC
14:00
Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
4/13/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 23Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunav Lom78%
×Draw14%
Juventus Malchika8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Lom
2.73
Juventus Malchika
0.76

Dunav Lom creates 259% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 65 away

creates per match

Dunav Lom
2.29
Juventus Malchika
0.80

allows per match

Dunav Lom
0.71
Juventus Malchika
3.17

finishing

Dunav Lom+0.00on par
Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Lom ↓

Juventus Malchika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dunav Lom or draw
92%
Dunav Lom or Juventus Malchika
86%
Draw or Juventus Malchika
22%

Winning margin

Dunav Lom wins by 2+
57%
Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Dunav Lom 1+ goals
93%
Dunav Lom 2+ goals
75%
Dunav Lom 3+ goals
50%
Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
53%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
18%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dunav Lom (draw refunded)
91%
Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Lom at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Lom attack 2.29 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.73

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Dunav Lom defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Dunav Lom scores more
78%
level
14%
Juventus Malchika scores more
8%

Dunav Lom at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Dunav Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dunav Lom host Juventus Malchika

April 13, 2024: Dunav Lom take on Juventus Malchika in Third League - Northwest. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dunav Lom host Juventus Malchika at Gradski Stadion Lom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.