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Juventus Malchika vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
4 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
3/23/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Juventus Malchika40%
×Draw23%
Botev Vratsa II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
1.65
Botev Vratsa II
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 61 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
63%
Juventus Malchika or Botev Vratsa II
77%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
60%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
20%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
81%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
49%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
23%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
80%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
47%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
52%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
40%
level
23%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
37%

Juventus Malchika at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Juventus Malchika 4–0 Botev Vratsa II

Juventus Malchika beat Botev Vratsa II 4-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Levski.