Botev Vratsa II 1–0 Juventus Malchika

Botev Vratsa II

FT

1 – 0

Juventus Malchika

5/28/2022

Third League - Northwest · North-West - 33Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Botev Vratsa II64%

×Draw19%

Juventus Malchika18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Vratsa IIExpected goals in this matchJuventus Malchika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.19

Botev Vratsa II

2.39

Juventus Malchika

1.19

Botev Vratsa II creates 101% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 65 away

1.61

creates per match

0.80

1.58

allows per match

3.17

creates per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.61

Juventus Malchika

0.80

allows per match

Botev Vratsa II

1.58

Juventus Malchika

3.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa II ↓

Juventus Malchika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa II or draw

82%

Botev Vratsa II or Juventus Malchika

81%

Draw or Juventus Malchika

36%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+

41%

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals

91%

Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals

69%

Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals

42%

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals

70%

Juventus Malchika 2+ goals

33%

Juventus Malchika 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)

78%

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa II at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 62 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.61 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.39

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Botev Vratsa II scores more

64%

level

19%

Juventus Malchika scores more

18%

Botev Vratsa II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Botev Vratsa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff