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Juventus Malchika vs Boruna Tsareva livada — Third League - Northwest 2018

Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
FT
1 – 1
Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
9/2/2023Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 4Stadion Georgi Karchev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Juventus Malchika53%
×Draw21%
Boruna Tsareva livada26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Malchika
2.05
Boruna Tsareva livada
1.37

Juventus Malchika creates 50% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 29 away

creates per match

Juventus Malchika
1.48
Boruna Tsareva livada
0.72

allows per match

Juventus Malchika
2.02
Boruna Tsareva livada
2.62

finishing

Juventus Malchika+0.00on par
Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Malchika ↓

Boruna Tsareva livada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Juventus Malchika or draw
74%
Juventus Malchika or Boruna Tsareva livada
79%
Draw or Boruna Tsareva livada
47%

Winning margin

Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
31%
Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
87%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
61%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
33%
Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
75%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
40%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
67%
Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Malchika at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.02 · 66 matches

Boruna Tsareva livada away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Malchika attack 1.48 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.05

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 0.72 + Juventus Malchika defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventus Malchika scores more
53%
level
21%
Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
26%

Juventus Malchika at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventus Malchika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Juventus Malchika 1–1 Boruna Tsareva livada

Juventus Malchika and Boruna Tsareva livada drew 1-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Karchev in Malchika.