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Boruna Tsareva livada vs Juventus Malchika — Third League - Northwest 2018

Boruna Tsareva livada
Boruna Tsareva livada
FT
5 – 2
Juventus Malchika
Juventus Malchika
3/16/2024Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · Northwest - 19Stadion Tsareva Livada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Boruna Tsareva livada58%
×Draw19%
Juventus Malchika23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boruna Tsareva livada
2.46
Juventus Malchika
1.50

Boruna Tsareva livada creates 64% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 65 away

creates per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
1.75
Juventus Malchika
0.80

allows per match

Boruna Tsareva livada
2.21
Juventus Malchika
3.17

finishing

Boruna Tsareva livada+0.00on par
Juventus Malchika+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boruna Tsareva livada ↓

Juventus Malchika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Boruna Tsareva livada or draw
77%
Boruna Tsareva livada or Juventus Malchika
81%
Draw or Juventus Malchika
42%

Winning margin

Boruna Tsareva livada wins by 2+
37%
Juventus Malchika wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Boruna Tsareva livada 1+ goals
91%
Boruna Tsareva livada 2+ goals
70%
Boruna Tsareva livada 3+ goals
44%
Juventus Malchika 1+ goals
78%
Juventus Malchika 2+ goals
44%
Juventus Malchika 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Boruna Tsareva livada (draw refunded)
72%
Juventus Malchika (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boruna Tsareva livada at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

Juventus Malchika away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.17 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boruna Tsareva livada attack 1.75 + Juventus Malchika defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.46

Juventus Malchika attack 0.80 + Boruna Tsareva livada defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Boruna Tsareva livada scores more
58%
level
19%
Juventus Malchika scores more
23%

Boruna Tsareva livada at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Boruna Tsareva livada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Boruna Tsareva livada 5–2 Juventus Malchika

Boruna Tsareva livada beat Juventus Malchika 5-2 in Third League - Northwest on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tsareva Livada in Dryanovo.