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Juventus Bucuresti vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
9/29/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 9Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti46%
×Draw26%
FC Politehnica Timisoara28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.48
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.10

Juventus Bucuresti creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
72%
Juventus Bucuresti or FC Politehnica Timisoara
74%
Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara
54%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
23%
FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
77%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
43%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
19%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
67%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
30%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
62%
FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
46%
level
26%
FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
28%

Juventus Bucuresti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus Bucuresti vs FC Politehnica Timisoara

Juventus Bucuresti and FC Politehnica Timisoara drew 1-1 in Liga II on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti).