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FC Politehnica Timisoara vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
4/6/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 28Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara42%
×Draw28%
Juventus Bucuresti31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.30
Juventus Bucuresti
1.08

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 20% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

creates per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.07
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.04
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Politehnica Timisoara ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw
69%
FC Politehnica Timisoara or Juventus Bucuresti
72%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
58%

Winning margin

FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
19%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
73%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
37%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
14%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
66%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
29%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
57%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 71 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 1.07 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
42%
level
28%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
31%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–1 Juventus Bucuresti

FC Politehnica Timisoara and Juventus Bucuresti drew 1-1 in Liga II on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Dan Păltinișanu (Timişoara).