Juventus Bucuresti 5–2 Dacia Unirea Braila

Juventus Bucuresti

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dacia Unirea Braila

5/18/2019

Liga II · Round 36Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti76%

×Draw14%

Dacia Unirea Braila10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus BucurestiExpected goals in this matchDacia Unirea Braila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.03

Juventus Bucuresti

2.98

Dacia Unirea Braila

1.03

Juventus Bucuresti creates 189% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.74

creates per match

0.68

1.37

allows per match

4.21

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti

1.74

Dacia Unirea Braila

0.68

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti

1.37

Dacia Unirea Braila

4.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Dacia Unirea Braila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw

90%

Juventus Bucuresti or Dacia Unirea Braila

86%

Draw or Dacia Unirea Braila

24%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+

56%

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals

95%

Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals

79%

Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals

56%

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals

64%

Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals

28%

Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)

88%

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Dacia Unirea Braila away — creates 0.68, concedes 4.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 4.21 → ÷2 → 2.98

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.68 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more

76%

level

14%

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more

10%

Juventus Bucuresti at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff