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Dacia Unirea Braila vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Dacia Unirea Braila
Dacia Unirea Braila
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
11/17/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Municipal (Brăila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Dacia Unirea Braila27%
×Draw24%
Juventus Bucuresti49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia Unirea Braila
1.21
Juventus Bucuresti
1.69

Juventus Bucuresti creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
0.89
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Dacia Unirea Braila
2.26
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Dacia Unirea Braila+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia Unirea Braila ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dacia Unirea Braila or draw
51%
Dacia Unirea Braila or Juventus Bucuresti
76%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
73%

Winning margin

Dacia Unirea Braila wins by 2+
11%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dacia Unirea Braila 1+ goals
70%
Dacia Unirea Braila 2+ goals
34%
Dacia Unirea Braila 3+ goals
12%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
82%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
50%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dacia Unirea Braila (draw refunded)
36%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia Unirea Braila at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia Unirea Braila attack 0.89 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Dacia Unirea Braila defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dacia Unirea Braila scores more
27%
level
24%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
49%

Juventus Bucuresti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dacia Unirea Braila 2–1 Juventus Bucuresti

Dacia Unirea Braila beat Juventus Bucuresti 2-1 in Liga II on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal (Brăila).