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Juventus Bucuresti vs CSM Reşiţa — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
CANC
08:00
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
8/24/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 4Stadionul Juventus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti45%
×Draw25%
CSM Reşiţa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.60
CSM Reşiţa
1.29

Juventus Bucuresti creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 64 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
CSM Reşiţa
1.22

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
CSM Reşiţa
1.47

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
69%
Juventus Bucuresti or CSM Reşiţa
75%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
55%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
23%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
80%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
47%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
22%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
72%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
37%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
59%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.22 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
45%
level
25%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
31%

Juventus Bucuresti at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus Bucuresti host CSM Reşiţa

August 24, 2019: Juventus Bucuresti take on CSM Reşiţa in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Juventus Bucuresti host CSM Reşiţa at Stadionul Juventus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.