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CSM Reşiţa vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
CANC
09:00
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
2/29/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CSM Reşiţa44%
×Draw26%
Juventus Bucuresti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSM Reşiţa
1.46
Juventus Bucuresti
1.17

CSM Reşiţa creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 19 away

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.40
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.22
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw
70%
CSM Reşiţa or Juventus Bucuresti
74%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
56%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
21%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
77%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
43%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
18%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
69%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
33%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
59%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more
44%
level
26%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
30%

CSM Reşiţa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: CSM Reşiţa host Juventus Bucuresti

February 29, 2020: CSM Reşiţa take on Juventus Bucuresti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.