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Juventus Bucuresti vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
CANC
12:00
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
10/16/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 12Stadionul Juventus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti42%
×Draw26%
Csikszereda32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.45
Csikszereda
1.24

Juventus Bucuresti creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
68%
Juventus Bucuresti or Csikszereda
74%
Draw or Csikszereda
58%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
20%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
77%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
42%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
18%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
71%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
35%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
56%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
42%
level
26%
Csikszereda scores more
32%

Juventus Bucuresti at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventus Bucuresti face Csikszereda (Liga II)

Liga II returns with Juventus Bucuresti hosting Csikszereda. Match starts October 16, 2019. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Juventus Bucuresti host Csikszereda at Stadionul Juventus.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.