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Csikszereda vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
CANC
08:00
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
4/17/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Csikszereda49%
×Draw26%
Juventus Bucuresti26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.54
Juventus Bucuresti
1.04

Csikszereda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 19 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
74%
Csikszereda or Juventus Bucuresti
74%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
51%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
25%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
79%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
45%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
20%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
65%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
28%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
66%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Csikszereda scores more
49%
level
26%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
26%

Csikszereda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Csikszereda face Juventus Bucuresti (Liga II)

Liga II returns with Csikszereda hosting Juventus Bucuresti. Match starts April 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.