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Juventus Bucuresti vs Concordia — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
CANC
09:00
Concordia
Concordia
11/30/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti43%
×Draw25%
Concordia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.50
Concordia
1.23

Juventus Bucuresti creates 22% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Concordia
1.09

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Concordia
1.27

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Concordia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Concordia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
69%
Juventus Bucuresti or Concordia
75%
Draw or Concordia
57%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
21%
Concordia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
78%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
44%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
19%
Concordia 1+ goals
71%
Concordia 2+ goals
35%
Concordia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
58%
Concordia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Concordia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.27 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Concordia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Concordia attack 1.09 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
43%
level
25%
Concordia scores more
31%

Juventus Bucuresti at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juventus Bucuresti host Concordia

November 30, 2019: Juventus Bucuresti take on Concordia in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.