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Concordia vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Concordia
Concordia
CANC
08:00
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
8/3/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 1Stadionul Concordia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia47%
×Draw27%
Juventus Bucuresti27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia
1.44
Juventus Bucuresti
1.02

Concordia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 19 away

creates per match

Concordia
1.35
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Concordia
0.94
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Concordia+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Concordia or draw
73%
Concordia or Juventus Bucuresti
73%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
53%

Winning margin

Concordia wins by 2+
23%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Concordia 1+ goals
76%
Concordia 2+ goals
42%
Concordia 3+ goals
18%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
64%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
27%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Concordia (draw refunded)
64%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia attack 1.35 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Concordia defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Concordia scores more
47%
level
27%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
27%

Concordia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Concordia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Concordia host Juventus Bucuresti

August 3, 2019: Concordia take on Juventus Bucuresti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Concordia host Juventus Bucuresti at Stadionul Concordia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.