Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juventus Bucuresti vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
9/15/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 7Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti39%
×Draw26%
Chindia Targoviste35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus Bucuresti
1.40
Chindia Targoviste
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.74
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti
1.37
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw
65%
Juventus Bucuresti or Chindia Targoviste
74%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
61%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
18%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
75%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
41%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
17%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
73%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
38%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
53%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more
39%
level
26%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
35%

Juventus Bucuresti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus Bucuresti vs Chindia Targoviste

Juventus Bucuresti and Chindia Targoviste drew 2-2 in Liga II on September 15, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti).