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Chindia Targoviste vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
3/24/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 26Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Chindia Targoviste53%
×Draw24%
Juventus Bucuresti23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chindia Targoviste
1.73
Juventus Bucuresti
1.06

Chindia Targoviste creates 63% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 19 away

creates per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.93
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Chindia Targoviste
1.02
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chindia Targoviste ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chindia Targoviste or draw
77%
Chindia Targoviste or Juventus Bucuresti
76%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
47%

Winning margin

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
29%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
82%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
52%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
25%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
65%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
29%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
70%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chindia Targoviste at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 61 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.93 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chindia Targoviste scores more
53%
level
24%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
23%

Chindia Targoviste at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Chindia Targoviste 4–2 Juventus Bucuresti

Chindia Targoviste beat Juventus Bucuresti 4-2 in Liga II on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Eugen Popescu (Târgovişte).