Juventus Bucuresti 1–0 Arges Pitesti

Juventus Bucuresti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Arges Pitesti

4/20/2019

Liga II · Round 31Stadionul Juventus (Bucureşti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Juventus Bucuresti40%

×Draw27%

Arges Pitesti34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus BucurestiExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Juventus Bucuresti

1.33

Arges Pitesti

1.20

Juventus Bucuresti creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 62 away

1.74

creates per match

1.03

1.37

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Juventus Bucuresti

1.74

Arges Pitesti

1.03

allows per match

Juventus Bucuresti

1.37

Arges Pitesti

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus Bucuresti ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventus Bucuresti or draw

66%

Juventus Bucuresti or Arges Pitesti

73%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

60%

Winning margin

Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+

18%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals

74%

Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals

38%

Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals

15%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

70%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

34%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)

54%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus Bucuresti at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.74 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arges Pitesti attack 1.03 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventus Bucuresti scores more

40%

level

27%

Arges Pitesti scores more

34%

Juventus Bucuresti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff