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Arges Pitesti vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
CANC
09:00
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
3/14/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arges Pitesti53%
×Draw25%
Juventus Bucuresti22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.57
Juventus Bucuresti
0.92

Arges Pitesti creates 71% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.61
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
0.73
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
78%
Arges Pitesti or Juventus Bucuresti
75%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
47%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
27%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
79%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
46%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
21%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
60%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
23%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
70%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.61 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.57

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
53%
level
25%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
22%

Arges Pitesti at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arges Pitesti face Juventus Bucuresti (Liga II)

Liga II returns with Arges Pitesti hosting Juventus Bucuresti. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.