Juventude 0–1 Cruzeiro: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cruzeiro

Tevis Gabriel 30'

12/8/2024

Serie A · Round 38Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Juventude38%

×Draw28%

Cruzeiro34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchCruzeiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.13

Juventude

1.23

Cruzeiro

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 43 away

1.14

creates per match

0.96

1.29

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Juventude

1.14

Cruzeiro

0.96

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Cruzeiro

1.31

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.12scores more

Cruzeiro+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Cruzeiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

66%

Juventude or Cruzeiro

72%

Draw or Cruzeiro

62%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

17%

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

71%

Juventude 2+ goals

35%

Juventude 3+ goals

13%

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

68%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

31%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

53%

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.14 + Cruzeiro defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cruzeiro attack 0.96 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juventude scores more

38%

level

28%

Cruzeiro scores more

34%

Juventude at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Cássio

Cruzeiro · G

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Marcelinho

30'

Tevis Gabriel↳ Lucas Silva

36'

Lucas Barbosa

40'

Vitinho← Ramiro

51'

Kaiki

56'

F. Peralta← L. Romero

57'

Matheus Pereira

62'

Nenê← Jean Carlos

62'

Alan Ruschel← Ewerthon

74'

Diego Gonçalves← Erick Farias

76'

Gabriel Veron

80'

Alan Ruschel

82'

R. Carrillo← Gabriel Taliari

82'

Mandaca← Danilo Boza

83'

L. Díaz← Tevis Gabriel

84'

Weverton← Gabriel Veron

90+6'

Alan Ruschel

90+6'

Alan Ruschel

90+6'

Alan RuschelRed card cancelled

90'

Matheus Pereira

90'

Matheus Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeCruzeiro

Overview

50%Possession50%

21Total Shots8

1.42Expected Goals (xG)0.35

8Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots8

7On Target1

7Off Target5

7Blocked2

13Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

351Total Passes375

299Accurate Passes310

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

1.20Goals Prevented1.20

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards1

0Offsides3