Cruzeiro 2–0 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cruzeiro

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude

J. Dinenno 87' (pen)

William 45' (pen)

7/24/2024

Serie A · Round 19Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Cruzeiro57%

×Draw24%

Juventude19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.84

Cruzeiro

1.65

Juventude

0.84

Cruzeiro creates 96% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

0.86

0.82

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.47

Juventude

0.86

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.82

Juventude

1.82

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.22scores more

Juventude+0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

81%

Cruzeiro or Juventude

76%

Draw or Juventude

43%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

31%

Juventude wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

81%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

49%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

23%

Juventude 1+ goals

57%

Juventude 2+ goals

21%

Juventude 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

75%

Juventude (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.82 · 42 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.47 + Juventude defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Juventude attack 0.86 + Cruzeiro defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

57%

level

24%

Juventude scores more

19%

Cruzeiro at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

43

João Marcelo

Cruzeiro · D

8.0

Match Events

-5'

João Lucas

41'

Gabriel Inocêncio← João Lucas

44'

Gabriel Inocêncio

45'

WilliamPenalty

65'

Zé Marcos

65'

Mandaca← Luís Oyama

65'

Gabriel Taliari← Gilberto

68'

Arthur Gomes← L. Díaz

69'

Zé Ivaldo

72'

João Marcelo

74'

J. Dinenno← Kaio Jorge

74'

Ramiro← Lucas Silva

74'

Walace← L. Romero

76'

Nenê← Erick Farias

76'

Ewerthon← Caíque

78'

William

83'

Juan DinennoPenalty confirmed

87'

Nenê

87'

J. DinennoPenalty

90+6'

Zé Marcos

90+6'

Zé Marcos

90+3'

L. Villalba← Matheus Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroJuventude

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots7

2.47Expected Goals (xG)0.87

6Corners5

14Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target2

3Off Target2

4Blocked3

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

421Total Passes339

359Accurate Passes273

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.83Goals Prevented0.83

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2