Juventude 2–0 Corinthians: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians

Lucas Barbosa 59'

Jean Carlos 53'

4/17/2024

Serie A · Round 2Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Juventude41%

×Draw29%

Corinthians30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.00

Juventude

1.23

Corinthians

1.00

Juventude creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

1.09

creates per match

0.80

1.21

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Juventude

1.09

Corinthians

0.80

allows per match

Juventude

1.21

Corinthians

1.36

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Juventude+0.15scores more

Corinthians+0.06on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

70%

Juventude or Corinthians

71%

Draw or Corinthians

59%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

18%

Corinthians wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

71%

Juventude 2+ goals

35%

Juventude 3+ goals

13%

Corinthians 1+ goals

63%

Corinthians 2+ goals

26%

Corinthians 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

58%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.09 + Corinthians defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Corinthians attack 0.80 + Juventude defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventude scores more

41%

level

29%

Corinthians scores more

30%

Juventude at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Jean Carlos

Juventude · M

8.5

Match Events

46'

Maycon← Wesley

53'

Jean Carlos↳ Jádson

57'

Pedro Raúl← Yuri Alberto

58'

Gustavo Silva← Á. Romero

59'

Lucas Barbosa↳ Jean Carlos

65'

F. Vera← Raniele

70'

Caique Gonçalves

70'

Marcelinho← Jean Carlos

74'

Paulinho← Maycon

79'

Rodrigo Sam← Zé Marcos

82'

Rodrigo Garro

86'

Mandaca← Nenê

86'

Werik Popó← Erick Farias

87'

90+6'

90'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeCorinthians

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots17

1.63Expected Goals (xG)1.16

6Corners7

16Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots17

8On Target2

4Off Target11

4Blocked4

8Inside Box11

8Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

391Total Passes473

314Accurate Passes383

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.37Goals Prevented0.37

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2