Corinthians 1–1 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Corinthians

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Juventude

Pedro Henrique 48'

Alan Ruschel 4'

8/4/2024

Serie A · Round 21Neo Química Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Corinthians55%

×Draw25%

Juventude20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.86

Corinthians

1.62

Juventude

0.86

Corinthians creates 88% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

1.47

creates per match

0.81

0.91

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Corinthians

1.47

Juventude

0.81

allows per match

Corinthians

0.91

Juventude

1.77

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Corinthians+0.02on par

Juventude+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw

80%

Corinthians or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

45%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+

30%

Juventude wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals

80%

Corinthians 2+ goals

48%

Corinthians 3+ goals

22%

Juventude 1+ goals

58%

Juventude 2+ goals

21%

Juventude 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)

74%

Juventude (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.47 + Juventude defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.62

Juventude attack 0.81 + Corinthians defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Corinthians scores more

55%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

20%

Corinthians at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Igor Coronado

Corinthians · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

4'

22'

30'

45+13'

45+2'

45+6'

Mateus Claus← R. Carrillo

46'

Pedro Henrique← Raniele

46'

Rodrigo Sam← Lucas Barbosa

47'

Jádson

48'

Pedro Henrique↳ Fágner

52'

56'

57'

57'

69'

Pedro Raúl← Hugo

77'

Breno Bidon← Alex Santana

78'

Edson Carioca← Erick Farias

78'

Diego Gonçalves← Thiago Conti

84'

Guilherme Biro← Giovane

90+7'

Mateus Claus

90+5'

Luis Mandaca

90+4'

Rodrigo Sam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CorinthiansJuventude

Overview

64%Possession36%

34Total Shots6

2.37Expected Goals (xG)0.74

11Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

34Total Shots6

10On Target3

14Off Target1

10Blocked2

19Inside Box5

15Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

430Total Passes252

362Accurate Passes163

84%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

0.85Goals Prevented0.85

Discipline

16Fouls15

2Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards3

0Offsides1