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Juventude MA vs Fluminense PI — Serie D 2018

Juventude MA
Juventude MA
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Fluminense PI
Fluminense PI
4/17/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Juventude MA42%
×Draw27%
Fluminense PI30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude MA
1.32
Fluminense PI
1.08

Juventude MA creates 22% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 27 away

creates per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Fluminense PI
0.96

allows per match

Juventude MA
1.21
Fluminense PI
1.44

finishing

Juventude MA+0.00on par
Fluminense PI+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude MA ↓

Fluminense PI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juventude MA or draw
70%
Juventude MA or Fluminense PI
73%
Draw or Fluminense PI
58%

Winning margin

Juventude MA wins by 2+
19%
Fluminense PI wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Juventude MA 1+ goals
73%
Juventude MA 2+ goals
38%
Juventude MA 3+ goals
15%
Fluminense PI 1+ goals
66%
Fluminense PI 2+ goals
29%
Fluminense PI 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventude MA (draw refunded)
58%
Fluminense PI (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude MA at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Fluminense PI away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude MA attack 1.21 + Fluminense PI defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fluminense PI attack 0.96 + Juventude MA defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventude MA scores more
42%
level
27%
Fluminense PI scores more
30%

Juventude MA at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventude MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventude MA vs Fluminense PI

Fluminense PI beat Juventude MA 4-2 in Serie D on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Marcos Pinheiro Neto in São Mateus, Maranhão.