Fluminense PI 1–2 Juventude MA: Result & Stats

Fluminense PI

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Juventude MA

7/17/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Fluminense PI36%

×Draw28%

Juventude MA36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fluminense PIExpected goals in this matchJuventude MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.17

Fluminense PI

1.16

Juventude MA

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Fluminense PI

1.19

Juventude MA

1.00

allows per match

Fluminense PI

1.33

Juventude MA

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense PI+0.00on par

Juventude MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense PI ↓

Juventude MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fluminense PI or draw

64%

Fluminense PI or Juventude MA

72%

Draw or Juventude MA

64%

Winning margin

Fluminense PI wins by 2+

15%

Juventude MA wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fluminense PI 1+ goals

69%

Fluminense PI 2+ goals

32%

Fluminense PI 3+ goals

11%

Juventude MA 1+ goals

69%

Juventude MA 2+ goals

33%

Juventude MA 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fluminense PI (draw refunded)

50%

Juventude MA (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense PI at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Juventude MA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense PI attack 1.19 + Juventude MA defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Juventude MA attack 1.00 + Fluminense PI defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fluminense PI scores more

36%

level

28%

Juventude MA scores more

36%

Fluminense PI at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fluminense PI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff