Juventude II 1–1 Brasil DE Pelotas: Result & Stats

Juventude II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brasil DE Pelotas

9/24/2025

Copa Gaúcha · 1st Phase - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Juventude II36%

×Draw27%

Brasil DE Pelotas36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventude IIExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Juventude II

1.25

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.30

1.20

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Juventude II

1.40

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.30

allows per match

Juventude II

1.20

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude II+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude II ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventude II or draw

64%

Juventude II or Brasil DE Pelotas

73%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

64%

Winning margin

Juventude II wins by 2+

16%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Juventude II 1+ goals

71%

Juventude II 2+ goals

36%

Juventude II 3+ goals

13%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

71%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

36%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Juventude II (draw refunded)

50%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude II at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude II attack 1.40 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 1.30 + Juventude II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventude II scores more

36%

level

27%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

36%

Juventude II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juventude II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff