Brasil DE Pelotas 2–1 Juventude II: Result & Stats

Brasil DE Pelotas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude II

11/16/2025

Copa Gaúcha · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Brasil DE Pelotas76%

×Draw17%

Juventude II7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil DE PelotasExpected goals in this matchJuventude II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

0.50

Brasil DE Pelotas

2.18

Juventude II

0.50

Brasil DE Pelotas creates 336% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

2.27

creates per match

0.73

0.27

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

2.27

Juventude II

0.73

allows per match

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.27

Juventude II

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Juventude II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil DE Pelotas ↓

Juventude II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brasil DE Pelotas or draw

93%

Brasil DE Pelotas or Juventude II

83%

Draw or Juventude II

24%

Winning margin

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

51%

Juventude II wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

89%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

64%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

37%

Juventude II 1+ goals

39%

Juventude II 2+ goals

9%

Juventude II 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

91%

Juventude II (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil DE Pelotas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.27 · 11 matches

Juventude II away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 2.27 + Juventude II defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.18

Juventude II attack 0.73 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 0.27 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

76%

level

17%

Juventude II scores more

7%

Brasil DE Pelotas at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Brasil DE Pelotas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff