Juventud 2–2 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats

Juventud

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico-MG

M. Perez 87'

P. Lago 78'

Vitor Hugo 77'

A. Minda 37'

5/5/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventud55%

×Draw23%

Atletico-MG22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.07

Juventud

1.81

Atletico-MG

1.07

Juventud creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

2.33

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Juventud

2.33

Atletico-MG

1.14

allows per match

Juventud

1.00

Atletico-MG

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud+0.00on par

Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Juventud or draw

78%

Juventud or Atletico-MG

77%

Draw or Atletico-MG

45%

Winning margin

Juventud wins by 2+

31%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Juventud 1+ goals

84%

Juventud 2+ goals

54%

Juventud 3+ goals

27%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

66%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

29%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventud (draw refunded)

71%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud attack 2.33 + Atletico-MG defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Atletico-MG attack 1.14 + Juventud defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Juventud scores more

55%

level

23%

Atletico-MG scores more

22%

Juventud at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Juventud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Perez

Juventud · F

7.9

Match Events

37'

A. Minda

46'

Gustavo Scarpa← Bernard

46'

T. Perez← Maycon

57'

R. Peralta← J. Boselli

57'

P. Lago← F. Perez

59'

Ruan

65'

Reinier← M. Cassierra

66'

Dudu← A. Minda

73'

M. Perez← F. Mimbacas

73'

R. Chagas← D. Morosini

77'

Vitor Hugo↳ Gustavo Scarpa

78'

P. Lago↳ A. Cruz

80'

S. Guerrero← E. Cecchini

87'

M. Perez↳ R. Chagas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudAtletico-MG

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots8

1.98Expected Goals (xG)0.78

8Corners5

8Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots8

8On Target6

4Off Target2

6Blocked0

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

448Total Passes424

361Accurate Passes331

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.51Goals Prevented0.51

Discipline

8Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2