Atletico-MG 2–1 Juventud: Result & Stats

Atletico-MG

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Juventud

M. Cassierra 90'

Bernard 43'

F. Perez 55'

4/16/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2MRV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atletico-MG60%

×Draw24%

Juventud16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchJuventud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.75

Atletico-MG

1.71

Juventud

0.75

Atletico-MG creates 128% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.08

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Atletico-MG

2.08

Juventud

1.00

allows per match

Atletico-MG

0.50

Juventud

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Juventud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Juventud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

84%

Atletico-MG or Juventud

76%

Draw or Juventud

40%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

34%

Juventud wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

82%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

51%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

24%

Juventud 1+ goals

53%

Juventud 2+ goals

17%

Juventud 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

79%

Juventud (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Juventud away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 2.08 + Juventud defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Juventud attack 1.00 + Atletico-MG defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

60%

level

24%

Juventud scores more

16%

Atletico-MG at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Cuello

Atletico-MG · F

8.3

Match Events

7'

Cauã SoaresPenalty cancelled

14'

Alan Franco

33'

Alejo Cruz

40'

Bernard

43'

Bernard↳ Cuello

55'

F. Perez

60'

Hulk← Caua

60'

Gustavo Scarpa← Bernard

60'

S. Guerrero← F. Mimbacas

61'

G. Gomez← J. Boselli

68'

L. Roldan← M. Izaguirre

70'

M. Cassierra← Reinier

70'

Dudu← Victor Hugo

79'

Gonzalo Gomez

84'

Alexsander← T. Perez

84'

G. Pereiro← F. Perez

84'

P. Lago← A. Cruz

86'

89'

90+1'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGJuventud

Overview

62%Possession38%

7Total Shots7

0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.35

1Corners1

10Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots7

4On Target3

1Off Target3

2Blocked1

4Inside Box2

3Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

523Total Passes313

443Accurate Passes232

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.76Goals Prevented-0.76

Discipline

10Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Juventud

Atletico-MG beat Juventud 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 16, 2026.

Goals: Bernard (43'), F. Perez (55'), M. Cassierra (90').

Atletico-MG controlled possession (62%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at MRV Arena in Belo Horizonte.

Atletico-MG vs Juventud — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Juventud