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Juventud Unida vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
6/9/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 21Estadio José María Moraños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Juventud Unida33%
×Draw31%
Central Cordoba36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida
0.97
Central Cordoba
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 136 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida
0.88
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Juventud Unida
1.13
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

Juventud Unida+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Juventud Unida or draw
64%
Juventud Unida or Central Cordoba
69%
Draw or Central Cordoba
67%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida wins by 2+
12%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Juventud Unida 1+ goals
62%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
25%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
7%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
64%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
27%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
48%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida attack 0.88 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + Juventud Unida defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventud Unida scores more
33%
level
31%
Central Cordoba scores more
36%

Central Cordoba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Juventud Unida 0–1 Central Cordoba

Central Cordoba beat Juventud Unida 1-0 in Primera C on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José María Moraños in La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires.