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Central Cordoba vs Juventud Unida — Primera C 2026

Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
10/4/2025Primera CPrimera C · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundEstadio Gabino Sosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Central Cordoba43%
×Draw31%
Juventud Unida26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba
1.11
Juventud Unida
0.79

Central Cordoba creates 41% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 46 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba
1.13
Juventud Unida
0.76

allows per match

Central Cordoba
0.83
Juventud Unida
1.09

finishing

Central Cordoba+0.00on par
Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba ↓

Juventud Unida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Central Cordoba or draw
74%
Central Cordoba or Juventud Unida
69%
Draw or Juventud Unida
57%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba wins by 2+
18%
Juventud Unida wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Central Cordoba 1+ goals
67%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
30%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
10%
Juventud Unida 1+ goals
55%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
19%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
62%
Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 137 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba attack 1.13 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Central Cordoba defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Cordoba scores more
43%
level
31%
Juventud Unida scores more
26%

Central Cordoba at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Central Cordoba 1–0 Juventud Unida

Central Cordoba beat Juventud Unida 1-0 in Primera C on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Gabino Sosa in Rosario.