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Juventud Unida vs Canuelas — Primera C 2026

Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Canuelas
Canuelas
8/23/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 23Estadio de San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Juventud Unida34%
×Draw30%
Canuelas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida
1.00
Canuelas
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 62 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida
0.88
Canuelas
0.95

allows per match

Juventud Unida
1.13
Canuelas
1.11

finishing

Juventud Unida+0.00on par
Canuelas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida ↓

Canuelas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Juventud Unida or draw
64%
Juventud Unida or Canuelas
70%
Draw or Canuelas
66%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida wins by 2+
13%
Canuelas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Juventud Unida 1+ goals
63%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
26%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
8%
Canuelas 1+ goals
65%
Canuelas 2+ goals
28%
Canuelas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
49%
Canuelas (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Canuelas away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida attack 0.88 + Canuelas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Canuelas attack 0.95 + Juventud Unida defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventud Unida scores more
34%
level
30%
Canuelas scores more
36%

Canuelas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Juventud Unida 0–1 Canuelas

Canuelas beat Juventud Unida 1-0 in Primera C on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio de San Miguel in San Miguel.