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Canuelas vs Juventud Unida — Primera C 2026

Canuelas
Canuelas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Juventud Unida
Juventud Unida
5/10/2025Primera CPrimera C · Round 10Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Canuelas41%
×Draw29%
Juventud Unida30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canuelas
1.17
Juventud Unida
0.96

Canuelas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

creates per match

Canuelas
1.24
Juventud Unida
0.76

allows per match

Canuelas
1.17
Juventud Unida
1.09

finishing

Canuelas+0.00on par
Juventud Unida+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canuelas ↓

Juventud Unida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Canuelas or draw
70%
Canuelas or Juventud Unida
71%
Draw or Juventud Unida
59%

Winning margin

Canuelas wins by 2+
17%
Juventud Unida wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Canuelas 1+ goals
69%
Canuelas 2+ goals
33%
Canuelas 3+ goals
11%
Juventud Unida 1+ goals
62%
Juventud Unida 2+ goals
25%
Juventud Unida 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Canuelas (draw refunded)
58%
Juventud Unida (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canuelas at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Juventud Unida away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canuelas attack 1.24 + Juventud Unida defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Juventud Unida attack 0.76 + Canuelas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Canuelas scores more
41%
level
29%
Juventud Unida scores more
30%

Canuelas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Canuelas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canuelas vs Juventud Unida

Canuelas beat Juventud Unida 2-0 in Primera C on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Alfredo Arín in Cañuelas, Provincia de Buenos Aires.