Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juventud Unida Univ. vs Argentino Monte Maíz — Torneo Federal A 2018

Juventud Unida Univ.
Juventud Unida Univ.
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Argentino Monte Maíz
Argentino Monte Maíz
4/26/2026Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Round 6Estadio Mario Sebastian Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Juventud Unida Univ.42%
×Draw32%
Argentino Monte Maíz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.08
Argentino Monte Maíz
0.77

Juventud Unida Univ. creates 40% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 71 away

creates per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
1.02
Argentino Monte Maíz
0.92

allows per match

Juventud Unida Univ.
0.62
Argentino Monte Maíz
1.14

finishing

Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par
Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Unida Univ. ↓

Argentino Monte Maíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Juventud Unida Univ. or draw
74%
Juventud Unida Univ. or Argentino Monte Maíz
68%
Draw or Argentino Monte Maíz
58%

Winning margin

Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+
17%
Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals
66%
Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals
29%
Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals
10%
Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals
54%
Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals
18%
Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)
62%
Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Unida Univ. at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Argentino Monte Maíz away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 1.02 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 0.92 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventud Unida Univ. scores more
42%
level
32%
Argentino Monte Maíz scores more
26%

Juventud Unida Univ. at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventud Unida Univ. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Juventud Unida Univ. 1–2 Argentino Monte Maíz

Argentino Monte Maíz beat Juventud Unida Univ. 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Sebastian Diez in San Luis.