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Argentino Monte Maíz vs Juventud Unida Univ. — Torneo Federal A 2018

Argentino Monte Maíz
Argentino Monte Maíz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Juventud Unida Univ.
Juventud Unida Univ.
6/15/2025Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 2 - 14Estadio Modesto Marrone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Argentino Monte Maíz49%
×Draw29%
Juventud Unida Univ.22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentino Monte Maíz
1.27
Juventud Unida Univ.
0.74

Argentino Monte Maíz creates 72% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 111 away

creates per match

Argentino Monte Maíz
1.50
Juventud Unida Univ.
0.79

allows per match

Argentino Monte Maíz
0.69
Juventud Unida Univ.
1.05

finishing

Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par
Juventud Unida Univ.+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Monte Maíz ↓

Juventud Unida Univ. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Argentino Monte Maíz or draw
78%
Argentino Monte Maíz or Juventud Unida Univ.
71%
Draw or Juventud Unida Univ.
51%

Winning margin

Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+
23%
Juventud Unida Univ. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals
72%
Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals
36%
Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals
14%
Juventud Unida Univ. 1+ goals
52%
Juventud Unida Univ. 2+ goals
17%
Juventud Unida Univ. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)
69%
Juventud Unida Univ. (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Monte Maíz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.69 · 72 matches

Juventud Unida Univ. away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 1.50 + Juventud Unida Univ. defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Juventud Unida Univ. attack 0.79 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Argentino Monte Maíz scores more
49%
level
29%
Juventud Unida Univ. scores more
22%

Argentino Monte Maíz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Argentino Monte Maíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Argentino Monte Maíz 2–1 Juventud Unida Univ.

Argentino Monte Maíz beat Juventud Unida Univ. 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Modesto Marrone in Monte Maiz.