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Juventud Torremolinos vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 4Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos53%
×Draw26%
Huétor Vega21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.51
Huétor Vega
0.85

Juventud Torremolinos creates 78% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 109 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
79%
Juventud Torremolinos or Huétor Vega
74%
Draw or Huétor Vega
47%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
27%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
78%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
44%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
19%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
57%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
21%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
71%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
53%
level
26%
Huétor Vega scores more
21%

Juventud Torremolinos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud Torremolinos vs Huétor Vega

Juventud Torremolinos beat Huétor Vega 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.