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Huétor Vega vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
1/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 18Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huétor Vega31%
×Draw27%
Juventud Torremolinos42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.13
Juventud Torremolinos
1.37

Juventud Torremolinos creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
58%
Huétor Vega or Juventud Torremolinos
73%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
69%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
12%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
68%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
31%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
11%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
75%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
40%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
42%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.13

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
31%
level
27%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
42%

Juventud Torremolinos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 0–0 Juventud Torremolinos

Huétor Vega and Juventud Torremolinos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.