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Juventud Torremolinos vs El Ejido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
El Ejido
El Ejido
Iker Burgos 24', 9'
Jaime 53'
Brian Rodríguez 36'
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos51%
×Draw26%
El Ejido23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.53
El Ejido
0.92

Juventud Torremolinos creates 66% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 49 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
El Ejido
1.16

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
El Ejido
1.43

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
El Ejido+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

El Ejido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
77%
Juventud Torremolinos or El Ejido
74%
Draw or El Ejido
49%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
27%
El Ejido wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
78%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
45%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
20%
El Ejido 1+ goals
60%
El Ejido 2+ goals
23%
El Ejido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
69%
El Ejido (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

El Ejido away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + El Ejido defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

El Ejido attack 1.16 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
51%
level
26%
El Ejido scores more
23%

Juventud Torremolinos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Iker Burgos
24'
Iker Burgos
36'
Brian Rodríguez
43'
Christian Ruiz← Toni Badía
53'
Jaime
61'
David Montes← Vitales
61'
Diego Llorente← Pablo Montes
67'
R. Gómez← Jesús Mena
67'
Sergio Díaz← Edu López
77'
Javi Amaya← Francisco Gallego
77'
Adri Pérez← Dani
77'
Javi López← Álex Camacho
81'
I. Touré← Brian Rodríguez
Juventud
El
Jesús Godino
Godino
Pablo Fernández
Fernández
Pedro Ramírez
Ramírez
Toni Badía
▼
Badía
Yeray Molina
Molina
Juanma Quesada
Quesada
Pablo Montes
▼
Montes
Vitales
▼
Vitales
Jaime
⚽
Jaime
Brian Rodríguez
⚽
▼
Rodríguez
R. Manga
Manga
Francisco Javier
Javier
Juanjo
Juanjo
Ismael Heredia
Heredia
Javi Mérida
Mérida
Dani
▼
Dani
Edu López
▼
López
Jesús Mena
▼
Mena
Álex Camacho
▼
Camacho
Fran Castillo
Castillo
Francisco Gallego
▼
Gallego
Iker Burgos
⚽2
Burgos
Antonio Calderón
Manager: Antonio Calderón
67'▲R. Gómez←▼Jesús Mena
67'▲Sergio Díaz←▼Edu López
77'▲Javi Amaya←▼Francisco Gallego
77'▲Adri Pérez←▼Dani
77'▲Javi López←▼Álex Camacho

Juventud Torremolinos substitutes

GómezDíazAmayaPérezLópez
Pumuki
Manager: Pumuki
43'▲Christian Ruiz←▼Toni Badía
61'▲David Montes←▼Vitales
61'▲Diego Llorente←▼Pablo Montes
81'▲I. Touré←▼Brian Rodríguez

El Ejido substitutes

RuizMontesLlorenteTouré

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Juventud Torremolinos 2–2 El Ejido

Juventud Torremolinos and El Ejido drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 29, 2023.

Goals: Iker Burgos (9', 24'), Brian Rodríguez (36'), Jaime (53').

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.