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El Ejido vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

El Ejido26%
×Draw26%
Juventud Torremolinos48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.00
Juventud Torremolinos
1.46

Juventud Torremolinos creates 46% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 45 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
52%
El Ejido or Juventud Torremolinos
74%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
74%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
9%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
63%
El Ejido 2+ goals
26%
El Ejido 3+ goals
8%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
77%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
43%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
35%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

El Ejido scores more
26%
level
26%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
48%

Juventud Torremolinos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: El Ejido 0–4 Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat El Ejido 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.