Juventud Torremolinos 2–3 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Juventud Torremolinos

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

4/9/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Campo Municipal El Pozuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos52%

×Draw26%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventud TorremolinosExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Torredonjimeno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.92

Juventud Torremolinos

1.54

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

0.92

Juventud Torremolinos creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 110 away

1.64

creates per match

1.16

0.67

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos

1.64

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.16

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos

0.67

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw

77%

Juventud Torremolinos or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

74%

Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

48%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+

27%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals

79%

Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals

45%

Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals

20%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

60%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

23%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)

70%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more

52%

level

26%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

23%

Juventud Torremolinos at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud Torremolinos vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Juventud Torremolinos 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo in Torremolinos.

Juventud Torremolinos vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Juventud Torremolinos vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno