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Ciudad de Torredonjimeno vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
12/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno37%
×Draw27%
Juventud Torremolinos36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.29
Juventud Torremolinos
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.77
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.00
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw
64%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Juventud Torremolinos
73%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
63%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
16%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
72%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
37%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
14%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
72%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
36%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
51%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.29

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
37%
level
27%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
36%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 0 – 0 Juventud Torremolinos

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno and Juventud Torremolinos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Matías Prats in Torredonjimeno.