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Juventud Torremolinos vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
12/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Polideportivo de Arroyo de la Miel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Juventud Torremolinos63%
×Draw21%
Alhaurín15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud Torremolinos
1.92
Alhaurín
0.82

Juventud Torremolinos creates 134% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

creates per match

Juventud Torremolinos
1.64
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

Juventud Torremolinos
0.67
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud Torremolinos ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Juventud Torremolinos or draw
85%
Juventud Torremolinos or Alhaurín
79%
Draw or Alhaurín
37%

Winning margin

Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
38%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
85%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
57%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
30%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
56%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
20%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
80%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud Torremolinos at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.64 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Juventud Torremolinos scores more
63%
level
21%
Alhaurín scores more
15%

Juventud Torremolinos at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud Torremolinos vs Alhaurín

Juventud Torremolinos beat Alhaurín 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Arroyo de la Miel in Benalmádena.