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Alhaurín vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Alhaurín
Alhaurín
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio Municipal Los Manantiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Alhaurín24%
×Draw27%
Juventud Torremolinos50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alhaurín
0.91
Juventud Torremolinos
1.46

Juventud Torremolinos creates 60% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

creates per match

Alhaurín
1.00
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Alhaurín
1.38
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Alhaurín+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhaurín ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Alhaurín or draw
50%
Alhaurín or Juventud Torremolinos
73%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
76%

Winning margin

Alhaurín wins by 2+
8%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Alhaurín 1+ goals
60%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
23%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
6%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
77%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
43%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alhaurín (draw refunded)
32%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alhaurín at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alhaurín attack 1.00 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Alhaurín defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alhaurín scores more
24%
level
27%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
50%

Juventud Torremolinos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Alhaurín 0–0 Juventud Torremolinos

Alhaurín and Juventud Torremolinos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Los Manantiales in Alhaurín de la Torre.