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Juventud de Bernal vs Deportivo Camioneros — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Juventud de Bernal
Juventud de Bernal
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
3/9/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 3Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Juventud de Bernal10%
×Draw18%
Deportivo Camioneros72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventud de Bernal
0.71
Deportivo Camioneros
2.24

Deportivo Camioneros creates 215% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 13 away

creates per match

Juventud de Bernal
0.57
Deportivo Camioneros
2.23

allows per match

Juventud de Bernal
2.24
Deportivo Camioneros
0.85

finishing

Juventud de Bernal+0.00on par
Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventud de Bernal ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–213%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Juventud de Bernal or draw
28%
Juventud de Bernal or Deportivo Camioneros
82%
Draw or Deportivo Camioneros
90%

Winning margin

Juventud de Bernal wins by 2+
3%
Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Juventud de Bernal 1+ goals
51%
Juventud de Bernal 2+ goals
16%
Juventud de Bernal 3+ goals
4%
Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
89%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
65%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Juventud de Bernal (draw refunded)
13%
Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventud de Bernal at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventud de Bernal attack 0.57 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.23 + Juventud de Bernal defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Juventud de Bernal scores more
10%
level
18%
Deportivo Camioneros scores more
72%

Deportivo Camioneros at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventud de Bernal vs Deportivo Camioneros

Deportivo Camioneros beat Juventud de Bernal 5-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano in Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires.